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Prediction for CME (2024-04-23T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-23T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30248/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. It may be associated with an eruption triggered by the M2.9 flare peaking at 2024-04-23T17:44Z from AR 3638, which also may have been associated with CME with ID: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001. The opening field lines appear to widen at 2024-04-23T17:51Z, which may be associated with this CME. It is analyzed as a separate feature from CME: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001 due to the difference in speed and apparent separate leading edge. No clear arrival signature seen in real time solar wind data. The closest possible arrival is at 2024-04-26 12:30Z, however it is also not a clear arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-27T19:56Z (-12.26h, +13.94h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/04/23 17:55Z
Plane of Sky 1: 01:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 08:50Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 7:50
POS Midpoint: 04:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.91
Travel Time: ~8.91 * 11:00 = 98:01

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-27T19:56Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/04/24 13:51Z
Lead Time: 26.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-04-26T17:49Z
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